Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Llaneros de Guanare vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
Canc
20:00
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
4/26/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare40%
×Draw26%
Portuguesa FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Portuguesa FC
1.22

Llaneros de Guanare creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 137 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Portuguesa FC
0.91

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Portuguesa FC
1.36

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
67%
Llaneros de Guanare or Portuguesa FC
74%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
60%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
19%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
75%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
40%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
16%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
70%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
34%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
55%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
40%
level
26%
Portuguesa FC scores more
33%

Llaneros de Guanare at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Llaneros de Guanare host Portuguesa FC

April 26, 2020: Llaneros de Guanare take on Portuguesa FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.