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Llaneros de Guanare vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
Canc
20:00
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
8/23/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare33%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Tachira FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.19
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.33

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
60%
Llaneros de Guanare or Deportivo Tachira FC
73%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
67%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
14%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
70%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
33%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
45%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
33%
level
27%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
40%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Llaneros de Guanare host Deportivo Tachira FC

August 23, 2020: Llaneros de Guanare take on Deportivo Tachira FC in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.