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Llaneros de Guanare vs Aragua FC — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
Canc
20:00
Aragua FC
Aragua FC
3/1/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 5Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare38%
×Draw26%
Aragua FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.35
Aragua FC
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 79 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Aragua FC
1.04

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Aragua FC
1.34

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Aragua FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
64%
Llaneros de Guanare or Aragua FC
74%
Draw or Aragua FC
62%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
17%
Aragua FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
74%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
39%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
15%
Aragua FC 1+ goals
72%
Aragua FC 2+ goals
37%
Aragua FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
52%
Aragua FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Aragua FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aragua FC attack 1.04 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
38%
level
26%
Aragua FC scores more
36%

Llaneros de Guanare at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Llaneros de Guanare face Aragua FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Llaneros de Guanare hosting Aragua FC. Match starts March 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Llaneros de Guanare host Aragua FC at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.