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Llanera vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Praviano
Praviano
1/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera55%
×Draw24%
Praviano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.75
Praviano
0.99

Llanera creates 77% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 113 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Praviano
1.23

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
79%
Llanera or Praviano
76%
Draw or Praviano
45%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
31%
Praviano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
83%
Llanera 2+ goals
52%
Llanera 3+ goals
25%
Praviano 1+ goals
63%
Praviano 2+ goals
26%
Praviano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
72%
Praviano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Praviano attack 1.18 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Llanera scores more
55%
level
24%
Praviano scores more
21%

Llanera at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llanera vs Praviano

Llanera and Praviano drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 6, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.