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Llanera vs L'Entregu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
L'Entregu
L'Entregu
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera53%
×Draw24%
L'Entregu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.71
L'Entregu
1.03

Llanera creates 66% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 112 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
L'Entregu
1.26

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
L'Entregu
1.16

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
L'Entregu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

L'Entregu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
77%
Llanera or L'Entregu
76%
Draw or L'Entregu
47%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
29%
L'Entregu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
82%
Llanera 2+ goals
51%
Llanera 3+ goals
24%
L'Entregu 1+ goals
64%
L'Entregu 2+ goals
28%
L'Entregu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
70%
L'Entregu (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

L'Entregu away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + L'Entregu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

L'Entregu attack 1.26 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Llanera scores more
53%
level
24%
L'Entregu scores more
23%

Llanera at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 1–3 L'Entregu

L'Entregu beat Llanera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.