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Llanera vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera45%
×Draw24%
Covadonga31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.61
Covadonga
1.30

Llanera creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 83 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
69%
Llanera or Covadonga
76%
Draw or Covadonga
55%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
23%
Covadonga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
80%
Llanera 2+ goals
48%
Llanera 3+ goals
22%
Covadonga 1+ goals
73%
Covadonga 2+ goals
37%
Covadonga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
59%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Llanera scores more
45%
level
24%
Covadonga scores more
31%

Llanera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 1–1 Covadonga

Llanera and Covadonga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.