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Ljubić Prnjavor vs Podrinje Janja — 1st League - RS 2019

Ljubić Prnjavor
Ljubić Prnjavor
FT
2 – 2
Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
9/19/20201st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 7Stadion Borik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Ljubić Prnjavor63%
×Draw20%
Podrinje Janja17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljubić Prnjavor
2.13
Podrinje Janja
1.00

Ljubić Prnjavor creates 113% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 54 away

creates per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.84
Podrinje Janja
0.80

allows per match

Ljubić Prnjavor
1.20
Podrinje Janja
2.41

finishing

Ljubić Prnjavor+0.00on par
Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljubić Prnjavor ↓

Podrinje Janja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ljubić Prnjavor or draw
83%
Ljubić Prnjavor or Podrinje Janja
80%
Draw or Podrinje Janja
37%

Winning margin

Ljubić Prnjavor wins by 2+
39%
Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ljubić Prnjavor 1+ goals
88%
Ljubić Prnjavor 2+ goals
63%
Ljubić Prnjavor 3+ goals
35%
Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
63%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
26%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ljubić Prnjavor (draw refunded)
79%
Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljubić Prnjavor at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljubić Prnjavor attack 1.84 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.13

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Ljubić Prnjavor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ljubić Prnjavor scores more
63%
level
20%
Podrinje Janja scores more
17%

Ljubić Prnjavor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ljubić Prnjavor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ljubić Prnjavor vs Podrinje Janja

Ljubić Prnjavor and Podrinje Janja drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Borik in Prnjavor.