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Livingston vs ST Mirren — League Cup 2018

Livingston
Livingston
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ST Mirren
ST Mirren
8/14/2021League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundTony Macaroni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Livingston46%
×Draw26%
ST Mirren28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Livingston
1.48
ST Mirren
1.09

Livingston creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

creates per match

Livingston
1.83
ST Mirren
1.57

allows per match

Livingston
0.61
ST Mirren
1.14

finishing

Livingston+0.00on par
ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Livingston ↓

ST Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Livingston or draw
72%
Livingston or ST Mirren
74%
Draw or ST Mirren
54%

Winning margin

Livingston wins by 2+
23%
ST Mirren wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Livingston 1+ goals
77%
Livingston 2+ goals
43%
Livingston 3+ goals
19%
ST Mirren 1+ goals
66%
ST Mirren 2+ goals
30%
ST Mirren 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Livingston (draw refunded)
62%
ST Mirren (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Livingston at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Livingston attack 1.83 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

ST Mirren attack 1.57 + Livingston defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Livingston scores more
46%
level
26%
ST Mirren scores more
28%

Livingston at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Livingston vs ST Mirren

Livingston and ST Mirren drew 1-1 in League Cup on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Tony Macaroni Arena in Livingston.