Livingston vs Forfar Athletic — League Cup 2025
Forfar Athletic score first in only 16% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Livingston88%
Forfar Athletic3%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Livingston creates 732% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No73
- Yes27
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Livingston ↓
Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Livingston at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
Forfar Athletic away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Livingston attack 2.67 + Forfar Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83
Forfar Athletic attack 0.00 + Livingston defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 88%?"
Livingston at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 88% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Livingston have won 4 in a row
- Livingston score first in only 35% of matches
- 65% of Livingston’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 30% of Forfar Athletic’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 20% of Forfar Athletic’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
- Livingston and Forfar Athletic have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
Livingston host Forfar Athletic on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 at 18:45. The match is part of the League Cup 2025/2026 season.
Livingston face Forfar Athletic (League Cup)
League Cup returns with Livingston hosting Forfar Athletic. Match starts July 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Livingston host Forfar Athletic at The Home of the Set Fare Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.