Liverpool W 2–1 Leicester City FC W: Result & Stats

Liverpool W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester City FC W

11/5/2023

FA WSL · Round 5Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Liverpool W57%

×Draw23%

Leicester City FC W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool WExpected goals in this matchLeicester City FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.99

Liverpool W

1.84

Leicester City FC W

0.99

Liverpool W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

1.33

creates per match

0.58

1.41

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Liverpool W

1.33

Leicester City FC W

0.58

allows per match

Liverpool W

1.41

Leicester City FC W

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool W+0.00on par

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool W ↓

Leicester City FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool W or draw

80%

Liverpool W or Leicester City FC W

77%

Draw or Leicester City FC W

43%

Winning margin

Liverpool W wins by 2+

33%

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liverpool W 1+ goals

84%

Liverpool W 2+ goals

55%

Liverpool W 3+ goals

28%

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals

63%

Leicester City FC W 2+ goals

26%

Leicester City FC W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Liverpool W (draw refunded)

74%

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

Leicester City FC W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool W attack 1.33 + Leicester City FC W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Leicester City FC W attack 0.58 + Liverpool W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Liverpool W scores more

57%

level

23%

Leicester City FC W scores more

20%

Liverpool W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff