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Liverpool vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Liverpool
Liverpool
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wolves
Wolves
5/22/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 38Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Liverpool54%
×Draw24%
Wolves22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liverpool
1.68
Wolves
0.97

Liverpool creates 73% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Liverpool
1.78
Wolves
0.81

allows per match

Liverpool
1.13
Wolves
1.58

finishing

Liverpool+0.17scores more
Wolves-0.31scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw
78%
Liverpool or Wolves
76%
Draw or Wolves
46%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+
29%
Wolves wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals
81%
Liverpool 2+ goals
50%
Liverpool 3+ goals
24%
Wolves 1+ goals
62%
Wolves 2+ goals
25%
Wolves 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)
71%
Wolves (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 22 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.78 + Wolves defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Wolves attack 0.81 + Liverpool defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Liverpool scores more
54%
level
24%
Wolves scores more
22%

Liverpool at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Liverpool 3–1 Wolves

Liverpool beat Wolves 3-1 in Premier League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Anfield in Liverpool.