Liverpool 4–0 Wolves: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wolves

Nélson Semedo 78' (OG)

J. Matip 67'

G. Wijnaldum 58'

Mohamed Salah 24'

12/6/2020

Premier League · Round 11Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Liverpool57%

×Draw23%

Wolves20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.97

Liverpool

1.82

Wolves

0.97

Liverpool creates 88% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

1.93

creates per match

0.82

1.12

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Wolves

1.72

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Wolves-0.24scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

80%

Liverpool or Wolves

77%

Draw or Wolves

43%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

33%

Wolves wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

84%

Liverpool 2+ goals

54%

Liverpool 3+ goals

27%

Wolves 1+ goals

62%

Wolves 2+ goals

25%

Wolves 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

74%

Wolves (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.72 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Wolves defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wolves attack 0.82 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Liverpool scores more

57%

level

23%

Wolves scores more

20%

Liverpool at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mohamed Salah

Liverpool · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

Neco Williams

24'

Mohamed Salah

44'

Conor CoadyGoal cancelled

58'

G. Wijnaldum↳ J. Henderson

62'

Fábio Silva← Rúben Neves

67'

J. Matip↳ Mohamed Salah

68'

T. Alexander-Arnold← N. Williams

71'

R. Aït Nouri← Daniel Podence

73'

Diogo Jota← Roberto Firmino

78'

Nélson SemedoOwn goal

79'

Vitinha← Pedro Neto

81'

N. Keïta← J. Henderson

89'

João Moutinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolWolves

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots9

4Corners6

8Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

626Total Passes395

564Accurate Passes333

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3