Liverpool 1–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

L. Díaz 74'

Son Heung-Min 56'

5/7/2022

Premier League · Round 36Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Liverpool52%

×Draw23%

Tottenham25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.15

Liverpool

1.77

Tottenham

1.15

Liverpool creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

1.93

creates per match

1.17

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Tottenham

1.62

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Tottenham+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

75%

Liverpool or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

48%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

29%

Tottenham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

Tottenham 1+ goals

68%

Tottenham 2+ goals

32%

Tottenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

68%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Liverpool scores more

52%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

25%

Liverpool at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Díaz

Liverpool · F

7.9

Match Events

53'

Ben Davies

56'

Son Heung-Min↳ R. Sessegnon

64'

K. Tsimikas← A. Robertson

65'

Diogo Jota← J. Henderson

69'

Konstantinos Tsimikas

70'

Ryan Sessegnon

74'

L. Díaz↳ Thiago Alcântara

78'

D. Sánchez← R. Sessegnon

80'

Fabinho

85'

H. Winks← D. Kulusevski

88'

N. Keïta← Fabinho

90+3'

Naby Keïta

90+1'

S. Bergwijn← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolTottenham

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots8

11Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target2

13Blocked3

9Inside Box5

13Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

618Total Passes338

530Accurate Passes252

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2