Liverpool 3–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Southampton

Mohamed Salah 45+3'

J. Matip 21'

W. Hoedt 10' (OG)

9/22/2018

Premier League · Round 6Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Liverpool59%

×Draw22%

Southampton20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.04

Liverpool

1.96

Southampton

1.04

Liverpool creates 88% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

1.93

creates per match

0.95

1.12

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Southampton

1.99

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

80%

Liverpool or Southampton

78%

Draw or Southampton

41%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

35%

Southampton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

86%

Liverpool 2+ goals

58%

Liverpool 3+ goals

31%

Southampton 1+ goals

65%

Southampton 2+ goals

28%

Southampton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

75%

Southampton (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.96

Southampton attack 0.95 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Liverpool scores more

59%

level

22%

Southampton scores more

20%

Liverpool at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Matip

Liverpool · D

8.3

Match Events

10'

W. HoedtOwn goal

21'

J. Matip↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

34'

Oriol Romeu

45+3'

Mohamed Salah

46'

J. Milner← X. Shaqiri

55'

J. Gomez← V. van Dijk

55'

S. Armstrong← M. Targett

55'

J. Bednarek← Oriol Romeu

56'

Mario Lemina

70'

N. Keïta← G. Wijnaldum

79'

C. Austin← S. Long

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolSouthampton

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots7

5Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target1

5Off Target1

3Blocked5

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

750Total Passes479

648Accurate Passes388

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1