Liverpool 3–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

Mohamed Salah 70'

Diogo Jota 55', 47'

M. Gibbs-White 67'

N. Williams 51'

4/22/2023

Premier League · Round 32Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Liverpool57%

×Draw22%

Nottingham Forest21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.04

Liverpool

1.88

Nottingham Forest

1.04

Liverpool creates 81% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

1.88

creates per match

0.96

1.12

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Liverpool

1.88

Nottingham Forest

0.96

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Nottingham Forest

1.89

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.16scores more

Nottingham Forest+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

79%

Liverpool or Nottingham Forest

78%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

43%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

33%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool 3+ goals

29%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

65%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

28%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

73%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 28 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.89 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.88 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88

Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Liverpool scores more

57%

level

22%

Nottingham Forest scores more

21%

Liverpool at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Gibbs-White

Nottingham Forest · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

J. Worrall← S. McKenna

47'

Diogo Jota↳ Fabinho

51'

N. Williams↳ M. Gibbs-White

55'

Diogo Jota↳ A. Robertson

60'

Thiago Alcântara← Fabinho

60'

D. Núñez← C. Gakpo

67'

M. Gibbs-White

70'

Mohamed Salah↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

76'

B. Johnson← R. Freuler

81'

81'

83'

87'

87'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

87'

E. Dennis← Felipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolNottingham

Overview

81%Possession19%

18Total Shots11

2.84Expected Goals (xG)0.85

9Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots11

6On Target5

7Off Target5

5Blocked1

16Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

81%Possession19%

650Total Passes148

570Accurate Passes78

88%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3