Liverpool 0–0 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

1/17/2021

Premier League · Round 19Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Liverpool49%

×Draw24%

Manchester United27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.24

Liverpool

1.73

Manchester United

1.24

Liverpool creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

1.93

creates per match

1.36

1.12

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Manchester United

1.52

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

73%

Liverpool or Manchester United

76%

Draw or Manchester United

51%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

26%

Manchester United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

52%

Liverpool 3+ goals

25%

Manchester United 1+ goals

71%

Manchester United 2+ goals

35%

Manchester United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

64%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Manchester United attack 1.36 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liverpool scores more

49%

level

24%

Manchester United scores more

27%

Liverpool at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

H. Maguire

Manchester United · D

8.3

Match Events

33'

Xherdan Shaqiri

61'

E. Cavani← A. Martial

65'

Fabinho

76'

C. Jones← X. Shaqiri

85'

D. Origi← Roberto Firmino

89'

J. Milner← G. Wijnaldum

89'

M. Greenwood← Bruno Fernandes

90'

Marcus Rashford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolManchester

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots8

7Corners3

15Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots8

3On Target4

6Off Target1

8Blocked3

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

667Total Passes344

576Accurate Passes252

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides8