Liverpool 1–0 Fulham: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

Mohamed Salah 39' (pen)

5/3/2023

Premier League · Round 28Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Liverpool51%

×Draw24%

Fulham25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.15

Liverpool

1.73

Fulham

1.15

Liverpool creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.83

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Liverpool

1.83

Fulham

1.15

allows per match

Liverpool

1.16

Fulham

1.63

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

75%

Liverpool or Fulham

76%

Draw or Fulham

49%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

28%

Fulham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

52%

Liverpool 3+ goals

25%

Fulham 1+ goals

68%

Fulham 2+ goals

32%

Fulham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

67%

Fulham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.16 · 26 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Fulham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fulham attack 1.15 + Liverpool defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Liverpool scores more

51%

level

24%

Fulham scores more

25%

Liverpool at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

8.3

Match Events

39'

Mohamed SalahPenalty

66'

C. Gakpo← L. Díaz

66'

A. Robertson← K. Tsimikas

71'

B. De Cordova-Reid← T. Cairney

71'

H. Reed← S. Lukić

71'

N. Kebano← H. Wilson

79'

M. Solomon← Carlos Vinícius

79'

D. James← Willian

83'

Diogo Jota← D. Núñez

84'

H. Elliott← Mohamed Salah

84'

J. Milner← C. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolFulham

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots9

1.83Expected Goals (xG)0.87

7Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target3

9Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

613Total Passes454

522Accurate Passes381

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Offsides2