Liverpool 5–2 Everton: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.14

Liverpool

1.84

Everton

1.14

Liverpool creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

1.93

creates per match

1.15

1.12

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Everton

1.75

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

76%

Liverpool or Everton

77%

Draw or Everton

46%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

30%

Everton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

84%

Liverpool 2+ goals

55%

Liverpool 3+ goals

28%

Everton 1+ goals

68%

Everton 2+ goals

32%

Everton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

70%

Everton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Everton attack 1.15 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Liverpool scores more

54%

level

23%

Everton scores more

24%

Liverpool at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Mané

Liverpool · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

D. Origi↳ S. Mané

17'

X. Shaqiri↳ S. Mané

21'

M. Keane

27'

Trent Alexander-Arnold

31'

Richarlison

31'

D. Origi↳ D. Lovren

35'

Bernard← D. Sidibé

45'

S. Mané↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

45+3'

Richarlison↳ Bernard

60'

M. Kean← D. Calvert-Lewin

67'

Tom Davies

72'

J. Henderson← A. Lallana

72'

M. Schneiderlin← T. Davies

73'

Roberto Firmino← D. Origi

83'

J. Gomez← T. Alexander-Arnold

90'

G. Wijnaldum↳ Roberto Firmino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolEverton

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots12

5Corners6

13Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target4

3Off Target7

3Blocked1

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

501Total Passes339

406Accurate Passes245

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3