Liverpool 1–0 Everton: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

D. Origi 90+6'

12/2/2018

Premier League · Round 14Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Liverpool54%

×Draw23%

Everton23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.13

Liverpool

1.84

Everton

1.13

Liverpool creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

1.93

creates per match

1.15

1.10

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Liverpool

1.10

Everton

1.75

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.16scores more

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

77%

Liverpool or Everton

77%

Draw or Everton

46%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

30%

Everton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

84%

Liverpool 2+ goals

55%

Liverpool 3+ goals

28%

Everton 1+ goals

68%

Everton 2+ goals

31%

Everton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

70%

Everton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 34 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Everton attack 1.15 + Liverpool defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Liverpool scores more

54%

level

23%

Everton scores more

23%

Liverpool at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

V. van Dijk

Liverpool · D

7.7

Match Events

33'

Xherdan Shaqiri

63'

A. Lookman← T. Walcott

71'

N. Keïta← X. Shaqiri

75'

D. Sturridge← Mohamed Salah

77'

Fabinho

80'

Joe Gomez

84'

D. Origi← Roberto Firmino

88'

André Gomes

89'

D. Calvert-Lewin← Bernard

90'

Gylfi Sigurðsson

90+1'

K. Zouma← G. Sigurðsson

90+6'

D. Origi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolEverton

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots9

8Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots9

3On Target3

10Off Target4

3Blocked2

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

521Total Passes388

415Accurate Passes282

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3