Liverpool 3–3 Brighton: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Brighton

A. Webster 63' (OG)

Roberto Firmino 54', 33'

L. Trossard 83', 17', 4'

10/1/2022

Premier League · Round 9Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Liverpool48%

×Draw23%

Brighton29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.35

Liverpool

1.79

Brighton

1.35

Liverpool creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.93

creates per match

1.58

1.12

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Brighton

1.58

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Brighton

1.66

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Brighton-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

71%

Liverpool or Brighton

77%

Draw or Brighton

52%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

26%

Brighton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

83%

Liverpool 2+ goals

53%

Liverpool 3+ goals

26%

Brighton 1+ goals

74%

Brighton 2+ goals

39%

Brighton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

62%

Brighton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Brighton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.79

Brighton attack 1.58 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Liverpool scores more

48%

level

23%

Brighton scores more

29%

Liverpool at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Trossard

Brighton · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

L. Trossard↳ D. Welbeck

17'

L. Trossard↳ S. March

29'

Pervis Estupiñán

33'

Roberto Firmino↳ Mohamed Salah

34'

Roberto FirminoGoal confirmed

46'

L. Díaz← Fábio Carvalho

54'

Roberto Firmino↳ L. Díaz

58'

J. Milner← K. Tsimikas

59'

H. Elliott← J. Henderson

63'

A. WebsterOwn goal

65'

K. Mitoma← P. Groß

75'

Diogo Jota← Roberto Firmino

75'

A. Lallana← P. Estupiñán

83'

L. Trossard

86'

Trent Alexander-Arnold

87'

T. Lamptey← L. Trossard

89'

D. Núñez← Thiago Alcântara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolBrighton

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots6

9Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots6

7On Target6

6Off Target0

2Blocked0

12Inside Box6

3Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

530Total Passes460

432Accurate Passes359

82%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0