Liverpool 3–0 Brentford: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Brentford

T. Minamino 77'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 69'

Fabinho 44'

1/16/2022

Premier League · Round 22Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Liverpool53%

×Draw23%

Brentford24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.13

Liverpool

1.81

Brentford

1.13

Liverpool creates 60% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

1.93

creates per match

1.14

1.12

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Liverpool

1.93

Brentford

1.14

allows per match

Liverpool

1.12

Brentford

1.70

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Liverpool+0.13scores more

Brentford+0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

76%

Liverpool or Brentford

77%

Draw or Brentford

47%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

30%

Brentford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

84%

Liverpool 2+ goals

54%

Liverpool 3+ goals

27%

Brentford 1+ goals

68%

Brentford 2+ goals

31%

Brentford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

69%

Brentford (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.93 + Brentford defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.81

Brentford attack 1.14 + Liverpool defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Liverpool scores more

53%

level

23%

Brentford scores more

24%

Liverpool at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

T. Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool · D

8.3

Match Events

19'

Kristoffer Ajer

44'

Fabinho↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

49'

Sergi Canós← R. Henry

68'

Y. Wissa← S. Baptiste

69'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ A. Robertson

74'

T. Minamino← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

75'

M. Jensen← B. Mbeumo

77'

T. Minamino↳ Roberto Firmino

78'

J. Milner← Roberto Firmino

82'

K. Gordon← Diogo Jota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolBrentford

Overview

68%Possession32%

27Total Shots6

9Corners0

6Fouls6

Shots

27Total Shots6

13On Target1

8Off Target3

6Blocked2

18Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

712Total Passes340

589Accurate Passes213

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves10

Discipline

6Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides7