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Little Rock Rangers vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

Little Rock Rangers
Little Rock Rangers
FT
3 – 2
Texas United
Texas United
6/3/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16War Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Little Rock Rangers46%
×Draw22%
Texas United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Little Rock Rangers
1.93
Texas United
1.59

Little Rock Rangers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

creates per match

Little Rock Rangers
2.31
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

Little Rock Rangers
0.69
Texas United
1.54

finishing

Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Little Rock Rangers ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Little Rock Rangers or draw
68%
Little Rock Rangers or Texas United
78%
Draw or Texas United
54%

Winning margin

Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+
25%
Texas United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals
85%
Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals
57%
Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals
30%
Texas United 1+ goals
80%
Texas United 2+ goals
47%
Texas United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)
59%
Texas United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Little Rock Rangers at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 42 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Little Rock Rangers attack 2.31 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Texas United attack 2.50 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Little Rock Rangers scores more
46%
level
22%
Texas United scores more
32%

Little Rock Rangers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Little Rock Rangers 3–2 Texas United

Little Rock Rangers beat Texas United 3-2 in USL League Two on June 3, 2021.

The match was played at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Arkansas.