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Little Rock Rangers vs GFI — USL League Two 2026

USL League TwoUSL League Two·2026
Little Rock Rangers
Little Rock Rangers
Preview
22:00
GFI
GFI
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 10:00 PM
Tournament
USL League Two · Round of 32
40%
Little Rock Rangers
model favours
40%23%37%

Little Rock Rangers are unbeaten in 13 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Little Rock Rangers40%
×Draw23%
GFI37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Little Rock Rangers
1.69
GFI
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Little Rock Rangers
1.67
GFI
2.80

allows per match

Little Rock Rangers
0.44
GFI
1.70

finishing

Little Rock Rangers+0.00on par
GFI+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Little Rock Rangers ↓

GFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Little Rock Rangers or draw
63%
Little Rock Rangers or GFI
77%
Draw or GFI
60%

Winning margin

Little Rock Rangers wins by 2+
20%
GFI wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Little Rock Rangers 1+ goals
82%
Little Rock Rangers 2+ goals
50%
Little Rock Rangers 3+ goals
24%
GFI 1+ goals
80%
GFI 2+ goals
48%
GFI 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Little Rock Rangers (draw refunded)
52%
GFI (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Little Rock Rangers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

GFI away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Little Rock Rangers attack 1.67 + GFI defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

GFI attack 2.80 + Little Rock Rangers defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Little Rock Rangers scores more
40%
level
23%
GFI scores more
37%

Little Rock Rangers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Little Rock Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Little Rock Rangers score first in only 8% of matches
  • Little Rock Rangers have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of GFI’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Little Rock Rangers and GFI have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rangers
DWWWW
GFI
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Little Rock Rangers vs GFI — Match Preview

Little Rock Rangers face GFI on July 16, 2026 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.