LISCR 2–2 Mighty Barrolle: Result & Stats

LISCR

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mighty Barrolle

3/20/2022

LFA First Division · Round 18TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

LISCR45%

×Draw24%

Mighty Barrolle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LISCRExpected goals in this matchMighty Barrolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.30

LISCR

1.64

Mighty Barrolle

1.30

LISCR creates 26% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 61 away

1.86

creates per match

1.48

1.13

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

LISCR

1.86

Mighty Barrolle

1.48

allows per match

LISCR

1.13

Mighty Barrolle

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

Mighty Barrolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

LISCR or draw

70%

LISCR or Mighty Barrolle

76%

Draw or Mighty Barrolle

55%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+

23%

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals

81%

LISCR 2+ goals

49%

LISCR 3+ goals

23%

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals

73%

Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals

37%

Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)

60%

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LISCR scores more

45%

level

24%

Mighty Barrolle scores more

30%

LISCR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff