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LISCR vs LPRC Oilers — LFA First Division 2020

LISCR
LISCR
FT
1 – 2
LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
11/2/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 10TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

LISCR42%
×Draw25%
LPRC Oilers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LISCR
1.55
LPRC Oilers
1.36

LISCR creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

LISCR
1.86
LPRC Oilers
1.60

allows per match

LISCR
1.13
LPRC Oilers
1.24

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par
LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

LPRC Oilers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

LISCR or draw
67%
LISCR or LPRC Oilers
75%
Draw or LPRC Oilers
58%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+
21%
LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals
79%
LISCR 2+ goals
46%
LISCR 3+ goals
20%
LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
74%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
39%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)
56%
LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.55

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

LISCR scores more
42%
level
25%
LPRC Oilers scores more
33%

LISCR at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: LISCR 1–2 LPRC Oilers

LPRC Oilers beat LISCR 2-1 in LFA First Division on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.