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LISCR vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

LISCR
LISCR
FT
1 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
11/3/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 1Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

LISCR56%
×Draw23%
Invincible Eleven21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LISCR
1.81
Invincible Eleven
1.01

LISCR creates 79% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

creates per match

LISCR
1.86
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

LISCR
1.13
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

LISCR+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LISCR ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

LISCR or draw
79%
LISCR or Invincible Eleven
77%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
44%

Winning margin

LISCR wins by 2+
32%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

LISCR 1+ goals
84%
LISCR 2+ goals
54%
LISCR 3+ goals
27%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
64%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
27%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

LISCR (draw refunded)
73%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LISCR at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LISCR attack 1.86 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.81

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + LISCR defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LISCR scores more
56%
level
23%
Invincible Eleven scores more
21%

LISCR at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LISCR vs Invincible Eleven

LISCR beat Invincible Eleven 1-0 in LFA First Division on November 3, 2021.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.