Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers — USL Championship 2017
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Charlotte Independence65%
Richmond Kickers16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Charlotte Independence creates 118% more chances
Season form · 55 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Charlotte Independence ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Charlotte Independence at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches
Richmond Kickers away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Charlotte Independence attack 1.73 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.27
Richmond Kickers attack 0.76 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Charlotte Independence at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Charlotte Independence host Richmond Kickers on Saturday, 2 September 2017 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2017/2018 season.
USL Championship: Charlotte Independence 3–0 Richmond Kickers
Charlotte Independence beat Richmond Kickers 3-0 in USL Championship on September 2, 2017.
Goals: Jaime Siaj (3'), E. Martínez (60' pen, 90+1').
The match was played at Matthews Sportsplex (Matthews, North Carolina).