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Lions vs Perth Glory — Australia Cup 2021

Lions
Lions
Preview
09:30
Perth Glory
Perth Glory
7/21/2026Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32Lions Stadium
43%
Perth Glory
model favours
38%19%43%

Lions and Perth Glory have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
83%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lions38%
×Draw19%
Perth Glory43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.33
Perth Glory
2.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lions
2.00
Perth Glory
2.33

allows per match

Lions
2.67
Perth Glory
2.67

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Perth Glory+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Perth Glory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Lions or draw
57%
Lions or Perth Glory
81%
Draw or Perth Glory
62%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
21%
Perth Glory wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
90%
Lions 2+ goals
67%
Lions 3+ goals
41%
Perth Glory 1+ goals
92%
Perth Glory 2+ goals
71%
Perth Glory 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
46%
Perth Glory (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Perth Glory away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.00 + Perth Glory defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Perth Glory attack 2.33 + Lions defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lions scores more
38%
level
19%
Perth Glory scores more
43%

Perth Glory at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Perth Glory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lions
WLWWW
Glory
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lions host Perth Glory

July 21, 2026: Lions take on Perth Glory in Australia Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lions host Perth Glory at Lions Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.