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Linköping W vs KIF Örebro W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Linköping W
Linköping W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
KIF Örebro W
KIF Örebro W
6/28/2021DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 10Arena Linköping

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Linköping W54%
×Draw22%
KIF Örebro W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linköping W
1.95
KIF Örebro W
1.21

Linköping W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 62 away

creates per match

Linköping W
2.01
KIF Örebro W
0.90

allows per match

Linköping W
1.51
KIF Örebro W
1.89

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par
KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

KIF Örebro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw
76%
Linköping W or KIF Örebro W
78%
Draw or KIF Örebro W
46%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+
32%
KIF Örebro W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals
86%
Linköping W 2+ goals
58%
Linköping W 3+ goals
31%
KIF Örebro W 1+ goals
70%
KIF Örebro W 2+ goals
34%
KIF Örebro W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)
70%
KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

KIF Örebro W away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.95

KIF Örebro W attack 0.90 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Linköping W scores more
54%
level
22%
KIF Örebro W scores more
24%

Linköping W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Damallsvenskan: Linköping W 4–1 KIF Örebro W

Linköping W beat KIF Örebro W 4-1 in Damallsvenskan on June 28, 2021.

The match was played at Arena Linköping in Linköping.