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Linhares vs CTE Colatina — Capixaba B 2027

Linhares
Linhares
Preview
18:00
CTE Colatina
CTE Colatina
8/5/2026Capixaba BCapixaba B · Round 5
78%
Linhares
model favours
78%13%9%

69% of Linhares’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Linhares78%
×Draw13%
CTE Colatina9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linhares
3.08
CTE Colatina
0.97

Linhares creates 218% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Linhares
2.00
CTE Colatina
1.17

allows per match

Linhares
0.78
CTE Colatina
4.17

finishing

Linhares+0.00on par
CTE Colatina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linhares ↓

CTE Colatina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Linhares or draw
91%
Linhares or CTE Colatina
87%
Draw or CTE Colatina
22%

Winning margin

Linhares wins by 2+
59%
CTE Colatina wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Linhares 1+ goals
95%
Linhares 2+ goals
81%
Linhares 3+ goals
58%
CTE Colatina 1+ goals
62%
CTE Colatina 2+ goals
25%
CTE Colatina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Linhares (draw refunded)
90%
CTE Colatina (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linhares at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

CTE Colatina away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linhares attack 2.00 + CTE Colatina defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.08

CTE Colatina attack 1.17 + Linhares defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Linhares scores more
78%
level
13%
CTE Colatina scores more
9%

Linhares at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Linhares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Linhares
WWLLD
Colatina
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linhares vs CTE Colatina — Match Preview

Linhares face CTE Colatina on August 5, 2026 in this Capixaba B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.