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Linfield vs Bangor — League #408 2026

Linfield
Linfield
Preview
15:00
Bangor
Bangor
1/30/2027League #408League #408 · Round 27Windsor Park
Big match
68%
Linfield
model favours
68%19%13%

Bangor have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Linfield68%
×Draw19%
Bangor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
2.15
Bangor
0.79

Linfield creates 172% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Linfield
2.38
Bangor
1.07

allows per match

Linfield
0.50
Bangor
1.93

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
87%
Linfield or Bangor
81%
Draw or Bangor
32%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
44%
Bangor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
88%
Linfield 2+ goals
63%
Linfield 3+ goals
36%
Bangor 1+ goals
55%
Bangor 2+ goals
19%
Bangor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
84%
Bangor (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 2.38 + Bangor defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Bangor attack 1.07 + Linfield defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Linfield scores more
68%
level
19%
Bangor scores more
13%

Linfield at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Linfield have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • 68% of Linfield’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Linfield
LDLLL
Bangor
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linfield face Bangor (League #408)

League #408 returns with Linfield hosting Bangor. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Linfield host Bangor at Windsor Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.