Linfield vs Bangor — League #408 2026
Bangor score first in only 33% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Linfield63%
Bangor14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Linfield creates 165% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Linfield ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Linfield at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches
Bangor away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Linfield attack 1.86 + Bangor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72
Bangor attack 0.86 + Linfield defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.65
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
Linfield at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 67% of Linfield’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- 67% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Linfield and Bangor have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Linfield host Bangor on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League #408 2026/2027 season.
Linfield face Bangor (League #408)
League #408 returns with Linfield hosting Bangor. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Linfield host Bangor at Windsor Park.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.