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Linense vs Ucam Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ucam Murcia
Ucam Murcia
10/2/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense52%
×Draw25%
Ucam Murcia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.56
Ucam Murcia
0.92

Linense creates 70% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Linense
1.37
Ucam Murcia
0.89

allows per match

Linense
0.95
Ucam Murcia
1.74

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Ucam Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Ucam Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Linense or draw
78%
Linense or Ucam Murcia
75%
Draw or Ucam Murcia
48%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
27%
Ucam Murcia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
79%
Linense 2+ goals
46%
Linense 3+ goals
21%
Ucam Murcia 1+ goals
60%
Ucam Murcia 2+ goals
23%
Ucam Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
70%
Ucam Murcia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Ucam Murcia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.37 + Ucam Murcia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ucam Murcia attack 0.89 + Linense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Linense scores more
52%
level
25%
Ucam Murcia scores more
22%

Linense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Linense 2–0 Ucam Murcia

Linense beat Ucam Murcia 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.