Lincoln 3–0 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

D. Mândroiu 85'

E. Bishop 73'

R. Hackett 68'

8/12/2023

League One · Round 2LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lincoln46%

×Draw22%

Wycombe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

Lincoln

1.88

Wycombe

1.52

Lincoln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.01

creates per match

1.72

1.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lincoln

2.01

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Wycombe

1.74

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

69%

Lincoln or Wycombe

78%

Draw or Wycombe

54%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Wycombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

85%

Lincoln 2+ goals

56%

Lincoln 3+ goals

29%

Wycombe 1+ goals

78%

Wycombe 2+ goals

45%

Wycombe 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

59%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lincoln scores more

46%

level

22%

Wycombe scores more

31%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

D. Mândroiu

Lincoln · F

9.3

Match Events

55'

Freddie Potts

57'

K. Phillips← D. Taylor

57'

G. McCleary← F. Potts

59'

Ethan Hamilton

65'

E. Bishop← E. Hamilton

66'

J. Burroughs← J. Brown

66'

T. Walker← B. House

68'

R. Hackett↳ D. Mândroiu

71'

A. Smith← L. Sørensen

73'

H. Boyes← J. Grimmer

73'

E. Bishop↳ D. Mândroiu

74'

B. Hanlan← S. Vokes

79'

T. De Barr← R. Keogh

80'

Josh Scowen

84'

Reeco Hackett-Fairchild

85'

D. Mândroiu↳ E. Bishop

88'

D. Duffy← D. Mândroiu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnWycombe

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots7

3Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots7

8On Target4

5Off Target3

1Blocked0

5Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

464Total Passes403

340Accurate Passes278

73%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Wycombe

Lincoln beat Wycombe 3-0 in League One on August 12, 2023.

Goals: R. Hackett (68'), E. Bishop (73'), D. Mândroiu (85').

Lincoln controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.

Lincoln vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Wycombe