Lincoln 1–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

L. Cullen 5'

C. Forino-Joseph 85'

2/12/2022

League One · Round 33LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lincoln46%

×Draw22%

Wycombe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

Lincoln

1.88

Wycombe

1.52

Lincoln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.01

creates per match

1.72

1.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lincoln

2.01

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Wycombe

1.74

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

69%

Lincoln or Wycombe

78%

Draw or Wycombe

54%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

25%

Wycombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

85%

Lincoln 2+ goals

56%

Lincoln 3+ goals

29%

Wycombe 1+ goals

78%

Wycombe 2+ goals

45%

Wycombe 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

59%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lincoln scores more

46%

level

22%

Wycombe scores more

31%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

C. Forino-Joseph

Wycombe · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

L. Cullen↳ A. Scully

20'

Josh Scowen

63'

Cohen Bramall

63'

B. Hanlan← G. McCleary

64'

D. Wheeler← L. Wing

68'

Joshua Griffiths

74'

Chris Maguire

78'

D. Horgan← J. McCarthy

83'

John Marquis

85'

C. Forino-Joseph↳ J. Obita

86'

M. Whittaker← A. Scully

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnWycombe

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots28

5Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots28

4On Target6

1Off Target11

2Blocked11

5Inside Box11

2Outside Box17

Passing

45%Possession55%

299Total Passes360

177Accurate Passes244

59%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Wycombe

Lincoln and Wycombe drew 1-1 in League One on February 12, 2022.

Goals: L. Cullen (5'), C. Forino-Joseph (85').

Wycombe controlled possession (55%) and registered 28 shots to 7.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.

Lincoln vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Wycombe