Lincoln 2–2 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Lincoln

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

Bruno Andrade 71', 48'

I. Chair 90+4', 87'

2/16/2019

League Two · Round 33Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lincoln37%

×Draw29%

Stevenage34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.06

Lincoln

1.12

Stevenage

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 100 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Lincoln

1.00

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

66%

Lincoln or Stevenage

71%

Draw or Stevenage

63%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

15%

Stevenage wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

67%

Lincoln 2+ goals

31%

Lincoln 3+ goals

10%

Stevenage 1+ goals

65%

Stevenage 2+ goals

29%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

52%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.00 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lincoln scores more

37%

level

29%

Stevenage scores more

34%

Lincoln at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Bruno Andrade↳ D. Rowe

51'

Cian Bolger

67'

M. O'Connor← L. Frecklington

69'

S. McCartan← D. Rowe

71'

Bruno Andrade↳ M. Bostwick

72'

79'

82'

84'

87'

I. Chair↳ J. Ball

88'

John Akinde

89'

Harry Toffolo

89'

Luther Wildin

90+4'

I. Chair↳ S. Cuthbert

Lincoln

Stevenage

1

Farman

5

A

Cuthbert

25

▼

Henry

30

Wilkinson

4

Timlin

8

▼

Byrom

3

Hunt

24

▼

Makasi

12

⚽2

2

9

21

5

23

19

A

▼

Rowe

24

Bolger

14

Toffolo

16

A

Bostwick

8

▼

Freckling

11

⚽2

Andrade

7

▼

Pett

29

Akinde

Manager: D. Cowley

67'▲M. O'Connor←▼L. Frecklington

69'▲S. McCartan←▼D. Rowe

84'▲M. O'Hara←▼T. Pett

Lincoln substitutes

4O'Connor17McCartan6O'Hara1Vickers25Roberts10Angol9Rhead

Manager: D. Maamria

72'▲E. Sonupe←▼R. Henry

79'▲L. Smyth←▼J. Byrom

82'▲J. Ball←▼M. Makasi

Stevenage substitutes

11Sonupe29Smyth7Ball27Byrne23Gibson15Vancooten37Martin