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Lincoln vs Northampton — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
A. Scully 84'
C. McGrandles 75'
D. Rose 90+6'
1/23/2021League OneLeague One · Round 25LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lincoln63%
×Draw19%
Northampton17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
2.26
Northampton
1.09

Lincoln creates 107% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Northampton
0.85

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Northampton
2.52

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
83%
Lincoln or Northampton
81%
Draw or Northampton
37%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
41%
Northampton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
89%
Lincoln 2+ goals
66%
Lincoln 3+ goals
39%
Northampton 1+ goals
66%
Northampton 2+ goals
30%
Northampton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
79%
Northampton (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.26

Northampton attack 0.85 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lincoln scores more
63%
level
19%
Northampton scores more
17%

Lincoln at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. ScullyLincolnLincoln · M
7.7

Match Events

35'
R. Korboa← M. Miller
36'
Lloyd Jones
62'
B. Ashley-Seal← J. Sowerby
68'
C. McGrandles← M. Rogers
75'
C. McGrandles↳ A. Edun
77'
Liam Bridcutt
84'
D. Rose← R. Edmondson
84'
A. Scully↳ T. Hopper
90'
M. Melbourne← A. Edun
90'
H. Anderson← A. Scully
90+6'
D. Rose

Possession

55%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

50%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnNorthampton
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots9
7Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target2
3Off Target3
3Blocked4
7Inside Box0
3Outside Box9
Passing
55%Possession45%
396Total Passes319
273Accurate Passes218
69%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 2–1 Northampton

Lincoln beat Northampton 2-1 in League One on January 23, 2021.

Goals: C. McGrandles (75'), A. Scully (84'), D. Rose (90+6').

Lincoln controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.