Lincoln 1–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Northampton

Bruno Andrade 27'

A. Pierre 45+5'

2/9/2019

League Two · Round 32Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lincoln32%

×Draw27%

Northampton40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.29

Lincoln

1.12

Northampton

1.29

Northampton creates 15% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 88 away

1.00

creates per match

1.24

1.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Lincoln

1.00

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Lincoln

1.33

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

60%

Lincoln or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

68%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

13%

Northampton wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

67%

Lincoln 2+ goals

31%

Lincoln 3+ goals

10%

Northampton 1+ goals

72%

Northampton 2+ goals

37%

Northampton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

44%

Northampton (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.00 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Northampton attack 1.24 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more

32%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

40%

Northampton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

David Buchanan

27'

Bruno Andrade↳ J. Akinde

33'

T. Pett← L. Frecklington

39'

42'

45+5'

55'

61'

64'

T. Elšnik← S. McWilliams

67'

Timi Elsnik

74'

L. Angol← J. Akinde

80'

M. O'Hara← M. OConnor

81'

J. Morias← J. Bridge

Lincoln

Northampton

1

Cornell

3

Buchanan

6

Taylor

2

▼

Facey

16

⚽

Pierre

18

Turnbull

17

▼

McWilliam

4

Goode

21

O'Toole

19

A

▼

7

21

5

23

19

24

14

8

▼

Freckling

4

▼

O'Connor

11

⚽

Andrade

26

Anderson

29

A

▼

Akinde

Manager: D. Cowley

33'▲T. Pett←▼L. Frecklington

74'▲L. Angol←▼J. Akinde

80'▲M. O'Hara←▼M. OConnor

Lincoln substitutes

7Pett10Angol6O'Hara1Vickers9Rhead20Brown25Roberts

Manager: K. Curle

55'▲D. Powell←▼S. Facey

64'▲T. Elšnik←▼S. McWilliams

81'▲J. Morias←▼J. Bridge

Northampton substitutes

11Powell22Elšnik14Morias9Williams10Powell15Bowditch30Coddington