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Lincoln vs Charlton — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
10/8/2022League OneLeague One · Round 14LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Lincoln43%
×Draw27%
Charlton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.36
Charlton
1.10

Lincoln creates 24% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 143 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
70%
Lincoln or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
57%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
20%
Charlton wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
74%
Lincoln 2+ goals
39%
Lincoln 3+ goals
16%
Charlton 1+ goals
67%
Charlton 2+ goals
30%
Charlton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
59%
Charlton (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Charlton attack 1.22 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lincoln scores more
43%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
30%

Lincoln at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. PooleLincolnLincoln · D
7.6

Match Events

63'
J. Garrick← D. Mândroiu
69'
J. Robson← S. Roughan
73'
Matthew Virtue-Thick
76'
C. Blackett-Taylor← C. Kirk
76'
S. Clare← S. Sessegnon
77'
Mandela Egbo
79'
T. Oakley-Boothe← M. Sanders
88'
C. McGrandles← G. Dobson
90+4'
J. Payne← J. Rak-Sakyi

Possession

45%Lincoln

Shots

6Lincoln

Pass accuracy

49%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnCharlton
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots5
10Corners6
12Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots5
1On Target1
1Off Target3
4Blocked1
3Inside Box4
3Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
375Total Passes473
276Accurate Passes368
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

League One: Lincoln 0–0 Charlton

Lincoln and Charlton drew 0-0 in League One on October 8, 2022.

Charlton controlled possession (55%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.