Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lincoln vs Bolton — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
B. House 10'
E. Toal 58'
12/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 24LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln44%
×Draw24%
Bolton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.71
Bolton
1.42

Lincoln creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Bolton
1.51

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Bolton
1.41

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
68%
Lincoln or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
56%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
23%
Bolton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
82%
Lincoln 2+ goals
51%
Lincoln 3+ goals
24%
Bolton 1+ goals
76%
Bolton 2+ goals
41%
Bolton 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
58%
Bolton (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bolton attack 1.51 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lincoln scores more
44%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
32%

Lincoln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
E. ToalBoltonBolton · D
7.6

Match Events

10'
B. House↳ D. Mândroiu
22'
Regan Poole
43'
Daniel Mandroiu
52'
Conor Bradley
57'
Joe Walsh
58'
E. Toal↳ A. Morley
61'
Joe Walsh
61'
Joe Walsh
63'
Jack Diamond
67'
E. Kachunga← D. Charles
67'
A. Bakayoko← M. Williams
74'
J. Robson← D. Mândroiu
76'
J. Böðvarsson← K. Dempsey
81'
K. Lee← K. Sadlier
82'
T. Hopper← B. House
89'
Matthew Virtue-Thick

Possession

26%Lincoln

Shots

5Lincoln

Pass accuracy

37%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBolton
Overview
26%Possession74%
5Total Shots6
2Corners4
14Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots6
3On Target1
2Off Target3
0Blocked2
3Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
26%Possession74%
177Total Passes503
82Accurate Passes397
46%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls12
6Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Bolton

Lincoln and Bolton drew 1-1 in League One on December 30, 2022.

Goals: B. House (10'), E. Toal (58').

Bolton controlled possession (74%) and registered 6 shots to 5.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.