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Lincoln vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
E. Bishop 73' (pen)
E. Erhahon 40'
D. Mândroiu 7' (pen)
8/26/2023League OneLeague One · Round 5LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln55%
×Draw23%
Blackpool23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.88
Blackpool
1.14

Lincoln creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Blackpool
0.94

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Blackpool
1.75

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
77%
Lincoln or Blackpool
77%
Draw or Blackpool
45%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
56%
Lincoln 3+ goals
29%
Blackpool 1+ goals
68%
Blackpool 2+ goals
32%
Blackpool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lincoln scores more
55%
level
23%
Blackpool scores more
23%

Lincoln at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
D. MândroiuLincolnLincoln · F
7.9

Match Events

7'
D. MândroiuPenalty
27'
J. Rhodes← S. Lavery
40'
E. Erhahon↳ D. Mândroiu
46'
O. Dale← J. Beesley
46'
A. Lyons← M. Ekpiteta
46'
S. Carey← K. Dougall
53'
Lukas Jensen
67'
E. Bishop← R. Hackett
67'
T. Walker← D. Mândroiu
70'
Oliver Norburn
72'
Oliver Norburn
73'
E. BishopPenalty
79'
A. Smith← E. Hamilton
79'
A. Mitchell← A. Jackson
81'
J. Weir← A. Morgan
85'
D. Duffy← B. House

Possession

35%Lincoln

Shots

11Lincoln

Pass accuracy

47%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBlackpool
Overview
35%Possession65%
11Total Shots14
1Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots14
5On Target3
2Off Target9
4Blocked2
5Inside Box9
6Outside Box5
Passing
35%Possession65%
393Total Passes721
289Accurate Passes615
74%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 3–0 Blackpool

Lincoln beat Blackpool 3-0 in League One on August 26, 2023.

Goals: D. Mândroiu (7' pen), E. Erhahon (40'), E. Bishop (73' pen).

Blackpool controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.