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Lincoln vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
B. Johnson 84'
A. Scully 75'
S. Kaikai 48'
E. Simms 37'
4/10/2021League OneLeague One · Round 41LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln55%
×Draw23%
Blackpool23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.88
Blackpool
1.14

Lincoln creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Blackpool
0.94

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Blackpool
1.75

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
77%
Lincoln or Blackpool
77%
Draw or Blackpool
45%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
56%
Lincoln 3+ goals
29%
Blackpool 1+ goals
68%
Blackpool 2+ goals
32%
Blackpool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lincoln scores more
55%
level
23%
Blackpool scores more
23%

Lincoln at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. ScullyLincolnLincoln · F
8.2

Match Events

2'
Callum Morton
37'
E. Simms
46'
J. Walsh← L. Montsma
46'
H. Anderson← M. Sanders
48'
S. Kaikai↳ J. Yates
49'
Conor McGrandles
72'
A. Scully← M. Rogers
72'
J. Jones← A. Edun
72'
T. Eyoma← A. Jackson
75'
A. Scully
80'
J. Lawrence-Gabriel← E. Embleton
84'
E. Robson← E. Simms
84'
B. Johnson↳ A. Scully
90'
Brennan Johnson
90'
James Jones

Possession

56%Lincoln

Shots

7Lincoln

Pass accuracy

51%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBlackpool
Overview
56%Possession44%
7Total Shots17
5Corners7
10Fouls12
Shots
7Total Shots17
3On Target7
2Off Target4
2Blocked6
7Inside Box13
0Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
461Total Passes358
324Accurate Passes241
70%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls12
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 2–2 Blackpool

Lincoln and Blackpool drew 2-2 in League One on April 10, 2021.

Goals: E. Simms (37'), S. Kaikai (48'), A. Scully (75'), B. Johnson (84').

Lincoln controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 17.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.