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Lincoln vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blackpool
Blackpool
T. John-Jules 63'
1/18/2020League OneLeague One · Round 28Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Lincoln55%
×Draw23%
Blackpool23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.88
Blackpool
1.14

Lincoln creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Blackpool
0.94

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Blackpool
1.75

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
77%
Lincoln or Blackpool
77%
Draw or Blackpool
45%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
56%
Lincoln 3+ goals
29%
Blackpool 1+ goals
68%
Blackpool 2+ goals
32%
Blackpool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lincoln scores more
55%
level
23%
Blackpool scores more
23%

Lincoln at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. John-JulesLincolnLincoln · F
8.0

Match Events

60'
J. Nuttall← L. Feeney
60'
G. Madine← A. Gnanduillet
62'
Max Melbourne
63'
T. John-Jules↳ T. Walker
75'
S. Kaikai← G. Ward

Possession

45%Lincoln

Shots

14Lincoln

Pass accuracy

48%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnBlackpool
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots9
4Corners6
9Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target3
7Off Target5
4Blocked1
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
378Total Passes456
260Accurate Passes341
69%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Blackpool

Lincoln beat Blackpool 1-0 in League One on January 18, 2020.

Goals: T. John-Jules (63').

Blackpool controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sincil Bank in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.