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Limón Black Star vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
1/21/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Limón Black Star47%
×Draw25%
Aserri FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.61
Aserri FC
1.18

Limón Black Star creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 106 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
72%
Limón Black Star or Aserri FC
75%
Draw or Aserri FC
53%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
24%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
80%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
48%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
22%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
69%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
33%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
63%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
47%
level
25%
Aserri FC scores more
28%

Limón Black Star at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Limón Black Star 0–1 Aserri FC

Aserri FC beat Limón Black Star 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós in Limón.