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Limón Black Star vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
PST
21:00
AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita
2/22/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Limón Black Star43%
×Draw25%
AD Carmelita32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.54
AD Carmelita
1.30

Limón Black Star creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
AD Carmelita
1.31

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
AD Carmelita
1.54

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

AD Carmelita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
68%
Limón Black Star or AD Carmelita
75%
Draw or AD Carmelita
57%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
21%
AD Carmelita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
79%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
45%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
20%
AD Carmelita 1+ goals
73%
AD Carmelita 2+ goals
37%
AD Carmelita 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
57%
AD Carmelita (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
43%
level
25%
AD Carmelita scores more
32%

Limón Black Star at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Limón Black Star face AD Carmelita (Liga de Ascenso)

Liga de Ascenso returns with Limón Black Star hosting AD Carmelita. Match starts February 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.