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Lillestrom vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
CANC
00:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
7/10/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 15Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lillestrom55%
×Draw22%
Haugesund23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lillestrom
2.00
Haugesund
1.22

Lillestrom creates 64% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lillestrom
1.65
Haugesund
1.07

allows per match

Lillestrom
1.37
Haugesund
2.36

finishing

Lillestrom-0.20scores less
Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw
77%
Lillestrom or Haugesund
78%
Draw or Haugesund
45%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+
33%
Haugesund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals
86%
Lillestrom 2+ goals
59%
Lillestrom 3+ goals
32%
Haugesund 1+ goals
70%
Haugesund 2+ goals
34%
Haugesund 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)
71%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 22 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.65 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.00

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Lillestrom defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lillestrom scores more
55%
level
22%
Haugesund scores more
23%

Lillestrom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lillestrom host Haugesund

July 10, 2021: Lillestrom take on Haugesund in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lillestrom host Haugesund at Åråsen Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.