Liezen 0–2 TuS Heiligenkreuz: Result & Stats

Liezen

FT

0 – 2

TuS Heiligenkreuz

9/17/2019

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 7Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Liezen36%

×Draw23%

TuS Heiligenkreuz41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiezenExpected goals in this matchTuS Heiligenkreuz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.67

Liezen

1.55

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

1.00

creates per match

1.49

1.84

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Liezen

1.00

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.49

allows per match

Liezen

1.84

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Liezen or draw

59%

Liezen or TuS Heiligenkreuz

77%

Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz

64%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+

17%

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals

79%

Liezen 2+ goals

46%

Liezen 3+ goals

20%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

81%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

50%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)

47%

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Liezen scores more

36%

level

23%

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

41%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff