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Liechtenstein vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018

Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
Preview
18:45
Lithuania
Lithuania
9/24/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 1
Big match
39%
Liechtenstein
model favours
39%29%32%

Lithuania score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Liechtenstein39%
×Draw29%
Lithuania32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liechtenstein
1.20
Lithuania
1.06

Liechtenstein creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Liechtenstein
0.63
Lithuania
0.62

allows per match

Liechtenstein
1.50
Lithuania
1.77

finishing

Liechtenstein+0.00on par
Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein ↓

Lithuania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Liechtenstein or draw
68%
Liechtenstein or Lithuania
71%
Draw or Lithuania
61%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein wins by 2+
17%
Lithuania wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Liechtenstein 1+ goals
70%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
34%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
12%
Lithuania 1+ goals
65%
Lithuania 2+ goals
29%
Lithuania 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
55%
Lithuania (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein attack 0.63 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Liechtenstein defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liechtenstein scores more
39%
level
29%
Lithuania scores more
32%

Liechtenstein at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liechtenstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 67% of Lithuania’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Liechtenstein 3 vs Lithuania 4
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Lithuania’s matches
  • Liechtenstein and Lithuania have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Liechtenstein
Balanced
Lithuania
Balanced
50%Possession46%
73%Pass accuracy75%
7.3ShotsBiggest gap8.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LiechtensteinLithuania

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Liechtenstein
LLLLL
Lithuania
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liechtenstein face Lithuania (UEFA Nations League)

UEFA Nations League returns with Liechtenstein hosting Lithuania. Match starts September 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.