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Lida vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Lida
Lida
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
5/15/20221. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadyen Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lida32%
×Draw23%
ML Vitebsk45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lida
1.50
ML Vitebsk
1.83

ML Vitebsk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lida
1.60
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Lida
1.30
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Lida+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lida or draw
55%
Lida or ML Vitebsk
77%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
68%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+
15%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals
78%
Lida 2+ goals
44%
Lida 3+ goals
19%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
84%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
54%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)
41%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.60 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Lida defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lida scores more
32%
level
23%
ML Vitebsk scores more
45%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Lida 4–2 ML Vitebsk

Lida beat ML Vitebsk 4-2 in 1. Division on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Start in Lida.