FCI Levadia II 1–1 Pärnu: Result & Stats

FCI Levadia II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Pärnu

10/6/2020

Esiliiga A · Round 22Maarjamäe Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

FCI Levadia II58%

×Draw20%

Pärnu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCI Levadia IIExpected goals in this matchPärnu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.33

FCI Levadia II

2.24

Pärnu

1.33

FCI Levadia II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 43 away

2.10

creates per match

1.12

1.55

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

FCI Levadia II

2.10

Pärnu

1.12

allows per match

FCI Levadia II

1.55

Pärnu

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCI Levadia II+0.00on par

Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCI Levadia II ↓

Pärnu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FCI Levadia II or draw

78%

FCI Levadia II or Pärnu

80%

Draw or Pärnu

42%

Winning margin

FCI Levadia II wins by 2+

36%

Pärnu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FCI Levadia II 1+ goals

89%

FCI Levadia II 2+ goals

65%

FCI Levadia II 3+ goals

38%

Pärnu 1+ goals

74%

Pärnu 2+ goals

38%

Pärnu 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FCI Levadia II (draw refunded)

72%

Pärnu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCI Levadia II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.55 · 125 matches

Pärnu away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCI Levadia II attack 2.10 + Pärnu defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.24

Pärnu attack 1.12 + FCI Levadia II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FCI Levadia II scores more

58%

level

20%

Pärnu scores more

22%

FCI Levadia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FCI Levadia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff